Long way for the Vietnamese economy

With the GDP growth rate of 2.12% in 9 months, the possibility of reaching the growth rate of over 2% in the whole year is almost certain.

GDP growth of Vietnam's economy in 9 months of 2020 as announced by the General Statistics Office reached a record low level in the past 10 years, with 2.12%. However, compared with other countries in the region and the world, this is still quite growth.

The results were low but positive in the new situation

There will be many views that at a record low level, it cannot be said that Vietnam has done well or that we still have the spirit of "selfie", self-encouragement, and self-praise.

In fact, although the growth is low, but the correlation picture in the general picture under the COVID-19 influence globally and in the region, it is clear that Vietnam has done too well.

TS. Jacques Moriset, Chief Economist of the World Bank (WB) in Vietnam, cited the WTO bloc's forecast that global trade in 2020 would decline by 13-35%, even if there is a recovery in recent months. Another figure from UNCTAD representing developing economies also recorded that FDI worldwide in 2020 was estimated to decrease by 20-30%.

Vietnam with large economic openness, GDP growth in previous years has made a great contribution from import and export - In a wave of decline, even recession and breakdown of global supply chain, low growth of Vietnam Nam has thus been recognized as being similar to Vietnam's success in controlling COVID-19 and becoming one of the leading ASEAN countries in disease security.

Notably in the third quarter, economic areas showed better signs than the second quarter and were the driving force for the country's overall economic growth.

Two long-term advantages of Vietnam

According to the General Statistics Office, in the third quarter and the first three quarters of 2020, the "reallocation" in the contribution to the GDP growth rate of all sectors also changes under the COVID-19 impact. While the industrial sector and the focus areas have low growth, clearly reflecting the story of global supply chain failures that cannot be "patched" and restructured even when Vietnam depends on the countries in the chain.

But the growth of the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector stood at 2.93% in the third quarter and overall, up 1.84% - showing that even though the sector was not epidemic, it was still affected by Asian climate and cholera, but still has the light of the core pillar. And this is due to the domestic initiative, which is also one of the factors that when the countries "clump", Vietnam with a thousand-year advantage in agricultural economy, is not the old advantage. Moreover, this advantage will be even more useful and clearly shown in the early days of the EVFTA Agreement - helping Vietnam expand agricultural space and other areas, in the large EU market.

Another advantage of Vietnam is its flexibility and always actively anticipate all new trends. In particular, although Vietnam lags behind in technology, Vietnam soon adapt and even take the initiative to "take a short cut" to integrate with one of the catalysts to help the economy not only overcome difficulties caused by epidemics. The disease has time and long-distance development, it is a digital tool. This advantage comes from both the Government's policies and policies to soon build a digital government and the digital economy of the Government, but equally important is the willingness to adapt and grasp and apply digitalization of businesses, especially. of people.

Commenting at a forum on Vietnam's Economy that took place recently, PhD. Jacques Moriset pointed out three catalysts in the new strategic direction, helping to optimize the impact of global value on Vietnam, namely the pricing mechanism, digital instrument and coordination mechanism.

Perhaps in the core advantage of the economy that is easy to promote localization and has the opportunity to diversify new products, markets and businesses, Vietnam is holding the key to core advantage and core catalysis. And it must also be frank that even though it is just a catalyst, the other two factors are reflecting the bottlenecks of Vietnam's economy that, if removed, will become leverage, spread comprehensively and promote initiation. our identity in the long run.

Dr. Cao Viet Sinh - Former Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment:

To achieve 2% growth by 2020, we still need to note the current difficulties of the economy. A fairly clear manifestation is that the economy has an export surplus of 17 billion USD after 9 months, while the export growth is only 4.2%, reaching over 202 billion USD. If the export surplus is high in the context of continued double-digit growth, that is too good. But here, the trade surplus is due to the decrease in imports. The failure of the supply chain has caused this situation, it is more difficult for Vietnamese enterprises to import input materials. This will make it difficult for production and business.

Mr. Duong Manh Hung - Director of Department of National Accounts System (General Statistics Office):

The disbursement of public investment capital still has plenty of room for growth, thereby making an important contribution to the overall economic growth of the country. Normally, in the last quarter of the year, public investment disbursement increased faster than the first quarters of the year. This is an important driving force for the economy to achieve a higher growth rate in the fourth quarter. Realized investment capital from the state budget in nine months was estimated at VND 303,000 billion, up 33.3% over the same period last year.